Trading Expectancy Calculator
Enter your win rate and average win and loss to find out if your strategy has an edge, how big it is, and what a realistic run of trades could look like.
- Expectancy per trade
- $0
- Profit factor
- 0
- Breakeven win rate
- 0%
- Kelly %
- 0%
- Expected profit over trades
- $0
- Payoff ratio (avg win ÷ avg loss)
- 0
- Chance of a losing streak somewhere in trades
Simulated equity curves
- Median ending balance
- Worst 5% ending balance
- Runs that ended profitable
- Median max drawdown
1,000 simulated runs; 40 shown. Each trade wins the average win or loses the average loss at your win rate.
The expectancy formula
Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss)
A strategy that wins only 40% of the time can still be very profitable if its winners are much bigger than its losers. A strategy that wins 80% of the time can still lose money if one loss wipes out five wins. Win rate on its own tells you almost nothing.
Breakeven win rate
The minimum win rate you need to not lose money given your average win and loss: avg loss ÷ (avg win + avg loss). With 2:1 winners, you only need to be right about 33% of the time.
Losing streaks are normal
Even a 60% win-rate strategy will very likely hit five losses in a row somewhere in 100 trades. Knowing that ahead of time is what keeps you from abandoning a good system during a normal rough patch. Size so that streak doesn't hurt: see the position size calculator.
Frequently asked questions
What is trading expectancy? +
Expectancy is the average amount you can expect to make (or lose) per trade over many trades: (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). A positive number means the strategy makes money over time; a negative one means it doesn't, however good individual trades feel.
What's a good profit factor? +
Profit factor is gross profit divided by gross loss. Anything above 1.0 is profitable. Many traders treat 1.5 or higher as solid and 2.0+ as strong, though very high numbers from a small sample are often luck.
What does the Kelly percentage mean? +
The Kelly criterion is the fraction of your account that maximizes long-run growth given your edge. Full Kelly is very aggressive and assumes your stats are exactly right, so most traders who use it bet a fraction, often a quarter or half of Kelly.
Why do the simulated curves look so different from each other? +
Because the order of wins and losses is random. Two traders with identical stats can have very different years. The simulation shows that range so a normal drawdown doesn't surprise you.
How many trades do I need for these stats to mean anything? +
More than most people think. With fewer than 30 to 50 trades your win rate and averages can be far from your true edge. Treat results from small samples as rough.
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